Lesson 5 · Other Designs and Approaches to Know · Step 3 of 7
Mathematical modeling studies
When officials need to know where an outbreak will be next month, no experiment can tell them in time. Mathematical models represent how disease moves through a population, as in the SEIR model's susceptible, exposed, infectious and recovered compartments. Models can be deterministic, stochastic or agent-based. During West Africa's Ebola epidemic, forecasts one to two weeks ahead were reliable and later ones were not, because people changed their behavior. Models that allowed for that response cut forecast error by roughly 90%. Treat outputs as projections under assumptions, not predictions.
Also covered: SEIR models · deterministic, stochastic and agent-based models · forecast horizon · calibration and sensitivity analysis
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Lesson 5 · 7 steps
Research Designs · lesson 5 of 5