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Explain and predict: why, what if, what comes next

Explanation and prediction answer different questions. Explanation asks why something happens and what would change if we acted: what would happen to an outcome as a result of a treatment or exposure, given what we knew beforehand. We can pursue it by asking people their reasons or by modeling. Prediction asks who is likely to experience an outcome next, so that extra support can reach them early. Regression tables label independent variables as predictors, but that label alone does not make a study predictive.

Also covered: barriers to family planning · postpartum family planning · postpartum IUD insertion · stepped-wedge design · prediction modeling · discontinuation risk score